THE GOSPEL ACCORDING TO THE MAGA MOVEMENT Day 18
THE BELIEF
"Inflation was caused by Biden’s reckless spending—trillions of dollars dumped into the economy, printing money like there’s no tomorrow. If you look around the world, countries that didn’t spend like Biden did didn’t have inflation. This was a self-inflicted wound, pure and simple."
THE PERFORMANCE
This belief is performed with the cadence of a prosecutor delivering a closing argument. The tone is one of exhausted certainty, as if the speaker is explaining something obvious to a child who refuses to listen. The rhetorical trick is the false binary: either Biden’s spending caused inflation, or inflation is a mystery. There is no third option.
The origin story traces to a March 2021 episode of The Ben Shapiro Show, where Shapiro argued that the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan was "going to overheat the economy" and "cause inflation." The claim was amplified by Republican lawmakers in floor speeches and Fox News segments, often paired with visuals of gas pumps or grocery receipts. Senator Rick Scott, in a June 2022 op-ed for Fox News, wrote: "Biden’s spending spree is the primary driver of inflation. Other countries didn’t do this, and they’re not suffering like we are." The performance relies on repetition—Biden’s spending, Biden’s spending—until the phrase becomes a reflex, like a sneeze.
THE DOCUMENTED RECORD
Inflation in 2021–2022 was not a uniquely American phenomenon. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported in October 2022 that advanced economies saw inflation rise from 1.6% in 2020 to 7.2% in 2022. Emerging markets and developing economies saw inflation jump from 5.1% to 9.9% in the same period. Countries with no equivalent stimulus programs—like Germany, which ran a budget surplus in 2021—experienced inflation rates of 7.9% in 2022, higher than the U.S. rate of 6.5%.
The primary drivers were global. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, in a May 2022 working paper, found that "supply chain disruptions and energy price shocks accounted for more than half of the U.S. inflation surge." The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook (April 2022) noted that energy prices rose 50% in 2021 due to post-pandemic demand and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted global oil and gas markets. A 2023 study in the Journal of Monetary Economics concluded that "fiscal stimulus contributed to inflation, but its effect was dwarfed by supply-side factors."
Even the architects of Biden’s stimulus acknowledged this. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the Senate Banking Committee in June 2022: "Inflation is not just a U.S. phenomenon. It’s a global phenomenon." The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), in a February 2023 report, estimated that the American Rescue Plan added 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points to inflation in 2021—meaning even without it, inflation would have been severe.
The record shows that inflation was a global shock, not a national one. The belief that Biden’s spending alone caused it ignores the fact that inflation hit countries that spent less, not more.
THE AUDIENCE
This belief resonates with people who feel financially squeezed—workers whose wages haven’t kept up with rising prices, retirees on fixed incomes, small business owners watching their margins evaporate. There is a legitimate grievance here: inflation is painful, and it does feel like the government is out of touch when it celebrates "strong job numbers" while families struggle to afford groceries.
The belief exploits this frustration by offering a simple villain: Biden’s spending. It transforms economic anxiety into political anger. The audience isn’t stupid—they’re responding to real hardship. But the belief directs that hardship toward a single, convenient target, rather than the complex, global forces that actually drove prices up.
THE CONTRADICTION
If Biden’s spending alone caused inflation, why did countries that spent less than the U.S. (like Germany) have higher inflation? If the American Rescue Plan was the primary driver, why did inflation peak in mid-2022, after most of its spending had already occurred? The belief collapses under its own logic: it cannot explain why the same phenomenon appeared in economies with opposite fiscal policies.
THE THING THEY GOT RIGHT
There is a grain of truth here: fiscal stimulus can contribute to inflation, especially when demand outstrips supply. The American Rescue Plan was large, and some economists (including Larry Summers) warned it could overheat the economy. The mistake is in treating this as the only cause, rather than one factor among many. The belief seizes on a real economic principle—too much money chasing too few goods—and stretches it into a cartoonish explanation.
THE ONE LINE
Biden’s spending contributed to inflation, but it was a global crisis driven by supply chains and energy prices, not a uniquely American mistake.
This newsletter uses direct quotes, public records, court documents, and documented biographical fact. It does not make claims beyond what the record supports. Readers are encouraged to consult primary sources and reach their own conclusions.