THE GOSPEL ACCORDING TO THE MAGA MOVEMENT Day 16
THE BELIEF
"Trans athletes are destroying women’s sports. The number of openly trans athletes competing at the elite level in America is in the dozens, and their physical advantages make fair competition impossible. This is an existential threat to female athletes—one that requires immediate action to protect women’s sports as we know them."
THE PERFORMANCE
This belief is performed with the urgency of a moral emergency. It is repeated by politicians at podiums, pundits on cable news, and activists on social media with a tone of unassailable certainty. The framing is always the same: women’s sports are under siege, and trans athletes are the invaders.
The origin story traces to a 2018 Wall Street Journal op-ed by tennis legend Martina Navratilova, who argued that trans women athletes had an "unfair advantage." The claim gained traction in 2020 when Idaho passed the first U.S. law banning trans girls from school sports, a bill that cited "biological differences" as justification. From there, the narrative was amplified by figures like Tucker Carlson, who in a 2021 segment declared, "The left is erasing women’s sports before our eyes," and by organizations like the Alliance Defending Freedom (ADF), which has filed lawsuits in multiple states to block trans athletes from competition.
The rhetorical trick is to present the issue as a zero-sum battle: protecting women’s sports means excluding trans athletes. The numbers are always vague ("dozens," "hundreds"), but the implication is clear: this is a crisis. The performance relies on emotional anecdotes—like the case of Lia Thomas, a trans swimmer who won a single NCAA title in 2022—while ignoring the broader context.
THE DOCUMENTED RECORD
The record shows that the number of openly trans athletes competing at the elite level in the U.S. is not in the dozens—it is in the single digits.
- NCAA Data (2022): The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), which governs college sports, reported that out of nearly 500,000 student-athletes, only 34 were openly transgender in 2022. Of those, only one—Lia Thomas—won a Division I championship. The NCAA’s policy requires trans women to undergo at least one year of testosterone suppression before competing, a standard based on peer-reviewed research.
- High School Sports (2023): A study by the Journal of Athletic Training found that 0.003% of high school athletes in states with inclusive policies were trans girls. In states with bans, the number was effectively zero.
- Olympic and Professional Sports: Since the International Olympic Committee (IOC) updated its guidelines in 2021 to allow trans women to compete under specific hormone thresholds, no openly trans woman has won an Olympic medal in a women’s sport. The IOC’s policy is based on a 2015 consensus statement from the British Journal of Sports Medicine, which found that after 12 months of hormone therapy, trans women’s muscle mass and strength decline to levels comparable to cisgender women.
- Legal Rulings: In Hecox v. Little (2020), a federal court blocked Idaho’s ban on trans athletes, ruling that the state had "no evidence" that trans girls were dominating sports. Similarly, in Soule v. Connecticut Association of Schools (2022), a court dismissed a lawsuit seeking to ban trans girls from track, noting that the plaintiffs had "failed to present any evidence" of widespread harm.
The gap between the belief and the record is stark: the "dozens" of trans athletes at the elite level do not exist. The handful who do compete are subject to strict regulations, and their participation has not led to the collapse of women’s sports.
THE AUDIENCE
This belief resonates with people who genuinely fear for the future of women’s sports. For decades, female athletes fought for equal opportunities, funding, and recognition. Title IX, the 1972 law banning sex-based discrimination in education, was a hard-won victory. Many see the inclusion of trans athletes as a threat to that progress—a fear that is not irrational, but is being exploited.
The grievance is real: women’s sports have been historically marginalized, and many still struggle for resources. The belief taps into that frustration, redirecting it toward a new target. The audience is not stupid; they are responding to a legitimate concern about fairness. But the solution being offered—banning trans athletes—does not address the actual problems in women’s sports, like unequal pay, lack of media coverage, or underfunding. Instead, it scapegoats a tiny, vulnerable group.
THE CONTRADICTION
If trans athletes are "destroying women’s sports," why are there no examples of them dominating at the professional or Olympic level? If their participation is an "existential threat," why do the states with the most inclusive policies—like California and New York—have thriving women’s sports programs? The belief relies on hypotheticals ("what if this scales?") while ignoring the documented reality: trans athletes are not a meaningful presence in elite sports, let alone a threat.
THE THING THEY GOT RIGHT
The concern about fairness in women’s sports is legitimate. There are biological differences between male and female athletes, and those differences matter in competition. The question is not whether those differences exist, but whether the current policies—like hormone therapy requirements—adequately address them. The grain of truth here is that sports governing bodies should have clear, evidence-based rules. But the belief distorts that truth by presenting trans athletes as the primary obstacle to fairness, rather than one small factor in a much larger system.
THE ONE LINE
"The claim that trans athletes are destroying women’s sports relies on a handful of anecdotes, not the documented reality of near-zero participation at the elite level."
This newsletter uses direct quotes, public records, court documents, and documented biographical fact. It does not make claims beyond what the record supports. Readers are encouraged to consult primary sources and reach their own conclusions.