THE BELIEF
Longtermism is a philosophy that prioritizes the well-being of future generations over the present. It posits that the decisions we make today have a profound impact on the long-term trajectory of human civilization, and that our actions should be guided by a desire to ensure the survival and prosperity of humanity for centuries to come. Longtermists believe that the most pressing issues facing humanity, such as climate change, nuclear war, and pandemics, can be addressed through careful planning, technological innovation, and strategic decision-making. They argue that by prioritizing the long-term, we can create a better future for all, even if it requires making sacrifices in the present.
THE ORIGIN
The longtermism philosophy has its roots in the work of philosopher and economist Nick Bostrom, who has written extensively on the topic. Bostrom's work was influenced by the ideas of futurist and economist Robin Hanson, who has also made significant contributions to the field. The concept of longtermism has been further developed by philosophers such as Toby Ord and William MacAskill, who have argued that it is a moral imperative to prioritize the well-being of future generations. The idea has also been popularized by entrepreneurs and investors such as Elon Musk and Peter Thiel, who have used longtermism as a guiding principle for their business and investment decisions.
THE IMPACT
The longtermism philosophy has had a significant impact on the tech industry, with companies such as Google and Facebook incorporating long-term thinking into their business strategies. For example, Google's parent company Alphabet has established a research division focused on long-term technological innovation, while Facebook has launched initiatives aimed at promoting sustainable development and reducing the company's environmental impact. Longtermism has also influenced the investment community, with venture capital firms such as Founders Fund and Y Combinator prioritizing investments in companies that have the potential to create long-term value.
However, the impact of longtermism extends beyond the tech industry. It has also influenced policy debates around issues such as climate change and nuclear disarmament. For example, the longtermism-inspired think tank 80,000 Hours has argued that governments should prioritize investments in climate change mitigation and nuclear disarmament, as these efforts have the potential to create long-term benefits for humanity. Longtermism has also been invoked in debates around the ethics of artificial intelligence, with some arguing that the development of AI should be guided by a desire to create a better future for all.
THE PUSH BACK
Critics of longtermism argue that it prioritizes the interests of future generations over the needs of the present. They argue that longtermism can lead to a form of "temporal imperialism," where the interests of future generations are imposed on the present without regard for the needs and values of current society. Some critics also argue that longtermism is based on a flawed assumption that we can accurately predict the needs and values of future generations, and that it ignores the complexity and uncertainty of the future. Alternative approaches, such as "presentism" or "short-termism," prioritize the needs and values of the present over the long-term, arguing that this is a more realistic and morally justifiable approach.
THE QUESTION
As we prioritize the long-term well-being of humanity, do we risk sacrificing the present for a future that may never come to pass, or do we have a moral obligation to ensure the survival and prosperity of humanity, even if it requires making difficult choices in the present?